Sunday, April 15, 2018


 By Toffee
Sunday 15th April 2018


Barisan Nasional hopefuls are on a seat scramble all over the country and at the centre of all this hullabaloo are the Chinese based parties who are demanding "safe seats".
Two major players in seat squabble

"Safe seats" to them are those seats where there is  a considerable Chinese presence and and a greater  Malay presence. They feel that UMNO will deliver the Malay vote whilst they will be able to get at least about 15 to twenty percent of the Chinese vote and wrest the seat. This has always been the way the MCA obtained seats in the past.

This time around the Gerakan is also seeking such "safe seats" as the jewel in their crown Penang has condemned them into the dustbins of history  and both parties are now determined to get an equal amount of  these "safe seats" for their own survival.

Although openly both the Gerakan and the MCA have declared that they will work together,  this can't be, as in the BN Parliamentarians and State Assemblymen have a lot to gain not only politically as history has testified in this country, so the demand for the safer of the safe seats gets hotter every day.

On the other hand UMNO feels that it is time the Chinese based parties fight on the Chinese turf, and that is mainly in Penang and the big cities and leave these "safe seats" which are Malay majority to UMNO as UMNO's own safety in this elections is in serious doubt.

MIC seems to be the sitting duck in this seat allocation business.

MCA is vying the Teluk Kemang seat, MIC is adamant that, that has been traditionally their seat and they are not in favour of giving it up. The Barisan Nasional has held this seat from 1974 - 2008 and in 2013 the then incumbent Sothinathan Sinna Gounddar   lost the seat to PKR's Kamarul Bharin Abbas.

MCA now feels it has a better chance of winning that seat and are lobbying for it heavily on the basis that MIC had already lost it and this time around they'd win it. An MCA leader in that area has made it clear to the MIC hopeful,  that the Chinese in the area would not vote any MIC candidate, in fact said the MCA man, even he would not vote him if the MIC candidate stood in that constituency.

Rizalman Cheras UMNO Divison Head
Then there is the  Bandar Tun Razak seat.
This  seat can be the source of a lot of trouble for Najib as  the tussle is between the MCA, and UMNO.

UMNO's division chief in that area wants the seat, then now suddenly this famous Rizalman is at the centre of  a  struggle as it was supposed to be his seat, but UMNO insiders tell us that Sharizat has been eyeing this seat for some time now and has got a tacit approval from Najib to go for that seat, if she wants to after the alleged nightclub scandal involving Rizalman.

Our UMNO sources also tell us that Rizalman was in the know of this attempt by Sharizat to take this seat even before the scandal but was confidant he'd get it as he was given an assurance of the same by a high ranking UMNO cabinet minster, believed to be Zahid with who Rizalman is closely aligned to.
Sharizat Abdul Jalil

It is therefore no secret why Rizalman cried "foul" and was asked to tone down by the party over the nightclub incident, that seems to have already tarnished his name and there is a great likelihood that Sharizat may take that seat.

However Sharizat is not really in the clear as yet, as Najib is finding it extremely difficult to sideline Rizalman who has strong connections close to Najib, and he  may not want to undermine his deputy  who our sources tell us is adamant about Rizalman standing in Cheras .

To soften the blow Najib may strike a deal  and  eventually allow MCA to retain that seat,   that is why Wee Ka Siong was reported saying,  'as it stands, Bandar Tun Razak is still an MCA seat".
Yes of course as it stands, it is, but not if the UMNO division or Sharizat has her way.

Yet another BN source tells us that if that is done the BN is bound to lose the Bandar Tun Razak seat.

As, as it is, it is a tough seat for the BN. "This is an urban seat where the Malay electorate are more  Harapan inclined this time around and the sentiment in the whole area is pro Harapan moreover the majority of the Chinese will not support the MCA or BN for that matter" said this UMNO source from Kajang.

Sharizat was offered Wangsa Maju, but that is a seat even the strongest BN candidate will lose,  the Malays from the Wangsa Maju constituency comprise a huge Malay pro "reformasi" following, and with the coming of Mahathir into the equation the chances of Harapan retaining  this seat are extremely high and Sharizat knows that as well, moreover Sharizat herself is not without scandal and is easy meat for the taking.

Down in Segamat the MIC President is suddenly feeling very uncomfortable, the stage is being set for his loss.

In the last elections the MIC President who is the incumbent won by a mere 3.61 percent and there were 950 spoilt votes and 88 unreturned ballots with a total total voter turnout of 39,895 and where he won by a slim majority of 1,217 votes.

This time around the dynamics have changed, there is the exit of Muhyiddin from UMNO and he has a strong support base in Johor, Mahathir has a strong following in that state too and that coupled with the PKR supporters makes UMNO the weaker party. 

During Mahathir's tenure Johor always returned a 100 per cent clean slate. Subramaniam is almost as good as gone, if he is fielded in Segamat and to make matters worse  he has already come out openly declaring  he is going to defend his Segamat seat, so he will find it very difficult to turn around now and say he wants something else.

Moreover Segamat was a strong support base of the former MIC Deputy President S. Subramaniam, whereas this Subramaniam is a strong supporter of Samy Velu and the chemistry with the Indian MIC supporters will not be the same  for this man as they do not really support or have any liking for Samy Velu, this may result in a  fractured relationship so the thirty odd percent of MICsupport that that he can expect from the Indian community will swindle further  and the opposition will surely benefit from the vote.

Will Najib's Malaysian Indian Blue Print help?
Can he ward off the challenge by Hanna Yeoh?

Ask any independent pressman to go and find out and any Indian will tell you this, " we have been showered with promises, promises and more promises over and over again, if all those promises were fulfilled all Indians would have been millionaires today," and as an Indian from an Indian NGO in Tanjung Malim put it to me, " ask them to make it happen first, then maybe we will vote them in the next time around. We have been lied to enough and more times, and we were fools to take them on their word, if we do it again we must be real damn fools, Najib should not be talking, he spoke at the last elections nothing was delivered. Remember his famous  Nambekei? Yes, that means TRUST,  nothing came out of it - Zero."

We gave him our trust he miss used  it and we trust him no more.

Looking at it from any angle Subramaniam is a goner if he stands in Segamat, I think the only safe seats for him are either Bagan Dato or Pekan.

UMNO Branch and Division heads are prodding Najib to send the MCA and Gerakan candidates to Ipoh, Kuala Lumpur, Puchong, Klang, and other major cities where there are Chinese majorities and leave the Malay seats for them, they have had enough, UMNO is demanding greater representation for themselves.

The Question is; 
Will Liow dare take on Lim Guan Eng?  he should,  he claims to represent the Malaysian Chinese, he is the President of the Malaysian Chinese Association,
will he even dare take on Gobind Singh Deo in Puchong and prove himself the head of the Malaysian Chinese Association?

The truth be told the Chinese and the Indians now look at themselves as Malaysians first and on that score neither him nor his party has right of place in almost all Malaysia..

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