by Toffee
3 February 2026
That is precisely what everyone should be asking; So what?
The succession of Ali Khamenei is currently the most volatile and high-stakes issue in the Middle East. As of Monday, March 2, 2026, Iran’s leadership has entered a "decapitation state" where the traditional lines of power have been blurred by the recent attacks.
Before going into details of the succession and it's implications, let's find out what was the significance of the Iranian Supreme leader not only in Iran but in the world as a whole.
The Iranian Supreme Leader is seen as the head of Shite Muslims the world over.
Since the days of Ayatollah Khomeni immediately after the Iranian Revolution in 1979 Iran had made no secret or rather the Supreme leader has made no secret that it would be the mission of IRAN to spread this Revolution all over the world beginning with the neighboring countries and rid all these nations of their way of governance, getting rid of Monarchies in the process.
The Iranian Shite leadership are not the only group that is in this quest of leading this Islamic dominance, in Ankara today Erdogan positions himself as the protector of the Sunnis, using soft power, TV dramas, and military interventions to signal a return to "Caliphate-lite" leadership a sort of Neo- Ottommanism .
Whilst the Iranian the Iranian Export model uses the "Axis of Resistance" (Hezbollah, Houthis, PMF) to project a Shia-led revolutionary model.
This "World Dominance" race has indeed fueled Islamophobia, as both sides often use radical rhetoric to out-compete the other for the "true" leadership of the Muslim world.
Now in the quiet of this power struggle there is a silent voice, a voice of peace, following the tradition of Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani from Najaf (Iraq), who believes that clerics should advise from the sidelines and not hold the scepter of power, which has found itself in the halls of the Seminaries of Qom. Referred to as the "Quietists" whose power is not in armies, but in legitimacy. If the senior Maraji (Grand Ayatollahs) in Qom refuses to recognize a certain candidate as the successor or a military junta, the regime loses its "divine" right to rule.
In Iran thus far the Ayatollah Khomeni and his successor Ali Khamenei both claimed this Divine Right, which the Quietists do not accept, as there is a growing movement in Qom where clerics are actually calling for a return to the mosque, fearing that by tying Islam to a failing, corrupt state, the regime is making an entire generation of Iranians turn away from the faith entirely.
Recent polls show that 73% of Iranians now favor a secular government.
WHO ARE THE LIKELY CANDIDATES TO SUCCEED ALI KHAMENI?
Currently there is an interim Government - Under Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution, when a Supreme Leader dies, an interim council must take over immediately. This council has been formally activated as of yesterday and currently consists of:
Masoud Pezeshkian (President): Often seen as a reformer, he is currently the face of the state’s administrative continuity.
Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei (Chief Justice): A hardline jurist who represents the judicial and "security" branch of the council.
Ayatollah Alireza Arafi: A senior cleric from the Guardian Council who was recently added to provide the necessary religious legitimacy for the transition.
The Top Contenders for Permanent Successor
While the interim council manages the war, the 88-member Assembly of Experts is meeting in secret to choose a permanent successor. The frontrunners are:
Mojtaba Khamenei: (56) Khamenei’s second son. Is extremely close ties to the IRGC (Intelligence/Basij). There are already those who have begun accusations of "hereditary rule" (The 1979 Revolution was built on a single, powerful promise: the end of hereditary rule. In overthrowing the Shah, the revolutionaries claimed they were replacing a "corrupt dynasty" with a meritocratic theocracy) Mojtaba has a strong and powerful backing of senior members of the IRGC,. The IRGC might actually prefer a dynastic succession because it’s predictable. They know Mojtaba; they’ve worked with him for years behind the scenes and their materialistic benefits derived by place and affinity to power will also continue. However, some IRGC factions fear that his appointment would trigger a civil war. They are pragmatists—if they believe Mojtaba will cause the "streets to explode," they might pivot to a "safe" bureaucrat like Alireza Arafi to maintain the status quo without the dynastic baggage. There is a degree of anger within the religious seminaries of Qom. Many senior Grand Ayatollahs already view the Khamenei era as having "over-politicized" Islam. Mojtaba is a mid-ranking cleric (a Hojjat-ol-Eslam), not a high-ranking Grand Ayatollah. While the regime has recently tried to "fast-track" his religious title to Ayatollah, many traditionalists see this as a political stunt. If he is forced upon the clerical establishment, we could see a split where the religious heart of Iran refuses to recognize his spiritual authority, leaving him as a leader with guns but no soul.
Mojtaba is the "High Risk, High Reward" candidate.
Why The strong support for Mojtaba
(The IRGC (Revolutionary Guard) isn't just a military; it’s a conglomerate that controls roughly 30% to 50% of Iran’s economy (construction, telecommunications, oil, and black-market smuggling).
To the commanders of the IRGC, Mojtaba is the ultimate "continuity candidate." He ensures their contracts remain valid and their wealth remains protected.
Alireza Arafi: (67) Head of Iran's seminary system. A "safe" establishment choice with deep religious credentials. Currently on the interim council. Not to be counted with the Quietists though. Currently sitting on the interim Council may not be acceptable to hardliners.
Mohseni Ejei: (69) Chief Justice seen as a hardliner himself has significant national security experience; favored by hardliners seeking a "wartime leader."
Hassan Khomeini: (53) Grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini. Carries the ultimate "revolutionary brand." Often sidelined by the current hardline establishment and not taken too seriously, seen as a moderate.
This Succession is Different
Usually, succession in Iran is a slow, choreographed process. However, because Khamenei was killed in a kinetic strike rather than dying of natural causes:
Missing Records: There are rumors that Khamenei’s "secret will" (which reportedly listed his preferred successors) may have been destroyed or lost in the strike on his compound.
Internal Chaos: Many of the "kingmakers" (the people who usually influence the Assembly of Experts) were also killed in the same 48-hour window, leaving a massive power vacuum at the top of the IRGC and the Ministry of Intelligence.
It is not certain if Khamenei himself would have expressed a desire for his son Mojtaba to succeed him although there are some who said he did indicate Alireza who was close to him, however in defiance conventions of the hardliners are believed to have forced Mojtaba's name on the list.
The danger of appointing Mojtaba Khamenei is the dynastic factor, there seems to be suspicion that the hardliners especially from the IRGC may push this agenda regardless of what others think about the dynastic factor.
This Succession will be different, very different should Mojtaba Khamenei be appointed. There will be a purge in the leadership of moderates, and some would be accused of being spies and many more just disappear or die of mysterious circumstances, in operations similar to what we see in North Korea.
The Implications of Mojtaba Appointment.
The 1979 Revolution was built on a single, powerful promise: the end of hereditary rule. By overthrowing the Shah, the revolutionaries claimed they were replacing a "corrupt dynasty" with a meritocratic theocracy.
If the Assembly of Experts appoints Mojtaba, they effectively admit that the "Islamic Republic" has transformed into an "Islamic Sultanate."
For the millions of Iranians who have spent the last few years protesting "clerical tyranny," a father-to-son succession is the ultimate proof that the regime is just a "turbaned version of the Shah." It provides a massive moral opening for the opposition to call the system a fraud.
The Iranian regime is facing massive protests by Iranians in Iran and at home, at more than 1.3 million Rial to the US dollar almost everything is beyond reach, corruption has peaked and this will only lead to more protests and attempts to overthrow the regime.
The best point of attack by the citizens will be the dynastic succession, and the only way for Mojtaba to remain in power will be to use brutal force regardless the number of Iranian lives lost in the process.
To divert attention he has to turn condemning Israel and the US and pursue the Nuclear option, so what one would witness is a "Kim Clone" that will be his only route out to remain in power and it will happen because to the commanders of the IRGC any move toward a more "republican" or "democratic" system threatens their billions. Therefore, they have every incentive to use the "iron fist" to enforce his legitimacy. surely Iran will be destined to have another Monarchy.
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