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Friday, March 4, 2011

Iran and US vying for greater influence in Messy Middle East

Libyan Opposition Flag - Don't Forget the Beng...Libya in tatters 
Egypt's revolution seems to have been all noise over nothing, the military is back in power they have even appointed a new prime minister and the next thing they will do is to appoint a new military strongman as president ,that the US had a strong hand in what happened there is no secret.

The Americans may not really  want Gaddafi  out, he is manageable but the Americans are worried  a post Gaddafi Libya will  send oil  spiraling up even higher then present day prices and the new leadership  hostile to American business interests.

The need for intervention and an American presence is thought by the Americans to be the best idea in a post Gaddafi Libya, but as usual the Americans read all situations wrong and this is very very wrong.

Any American presence will only encourage the presence of Hezbollah and Al Qaeda, that will turn Libya into another Iraq and make it ripe for Iranian picking.

The Libyans on both sides of the divide will not want the Americans in, if at all anything they may even join forces to keep "Uncle Sam," out.

The people who could help Libya out of this situation and keep the Americans away is Chavez of Venezuela, he has already offered assistance to bring warring sections together and the Arab League is in agreement with his suggestions, but Libya's new opposition has flatly turned down any suggestion for negotiations with Gaddafi.

Chavez may play yet another card and bring the very respected Fidel Castro into the fray. Castro is well respected by most left leaning middle east nations and the Arabs have a huge respect for both him and Chavez.

If all fails Gaddafi could be headed for Cuba or Caracas, its not that he has no choice, the west are aware of this possibility and that is why they are demanding that all Gadafi's assets overseas be frozen, less he transfers them either to Cuba or Venezuela.

So you see American intelligence "is a contradiction of terms" as there is absolutely no intelligence in what they do, the CIA is more like the Central Idiots Agency.

To intervene in Libya will only provoke the Arabs and give the Iranians and Syrians all the advantage in the propaganda war against the American, it will open the door for Iranian intervention via the Hezbollah and Hammas.

The Muslim brotherhood is not Al Qaeda, far from it, they are but an Islamist organsiation trying to implement Islamic law in the Arab states, the Muslim brotherhood is predominantly Sunni whilst Hammas and Hezbollah are both Shite, both Hezbollah and Hammas operate in Arab territory which is predominantly Sunni,and that could spark inter faith clashes between the Muslims of the separate confessions, and in the process push the brotherhood towards Al Qaeda, a situation no one wants.

Ahamdinijad  of Iran is also using these conflicts  as an effort to divert attention of the opposition in his own country that threatens to run berserk over his rule. Iran is still ripe for another revolution, and it is a clear indication that the great revolution of Iran was not that great after all. It has not delivered on its promises and the Iranian peoples are getting fed up with this regime.

 The entire Middle east is in for regime change, it is the inability of these people to actually focus on the main issues that make their revolutions ineffective, and subject to being hijacked by others as is the case in Egypt. The Arab nations need real and credible leadership, which is lacking terribly in these states.

Ideologies differ, you have the extreme fundamental religious groups who coerce using religion and besides them there is hardly a choice, that is why Gaddafi once said that the people do not know what they want and as a result the government would give to the people what it thought best. Evidently Gaddafi did not give enough and what he gave was too little too late.

Libya may need another Gaddafi, a more benevolent  Gaddafi, Egypt may require a Nasser a benevolent Nasser, who would then prepare these countries for a democratic transformation.

Now as Libya slides into Civil War, what is to happen of Egypt and the Arab and Iranian revolutions.

Apparently no one cares, the whole world is only worried about the oil, who cares for the Arabs, really no one,even Chavez is doing it for the sake of Oil.


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